Chicago, Aug. 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The global small caliber ammunition market was valued at US$ 8.10 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 10.75 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.2% during the forecast period 2025–2033.
Global defense spending is skyrocketing, directly fueling the small caliber ammunition market through a wave of substantial government contracts. Nations are urgently modernizing their arsenals, leading to significant procurement activities. The U.S. Army, for instance, awarded a monumental $299.7 million firm-fixed-price contract to Northrop Grumman and Global Military Products, slated for completion by December 28, 2025. Similarly, Olin-Winchester secured a $58,529,810 contract for 5.56 NATO, 7.62 NATO, and .50 caliber BMG ammunition, with the U.S. Army obligating this full amount for completion by September 30, 2025. This follows the U.S. Department of Defense's supply of at least 400 million small arms rounds to Ukraine over three years and a $331 million investment in March 2023 for 18,000 Next Generation Squad Weapons.
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Since January 2025 alone, the U.S. DoD has awarded $3.8 billion in new ammunition contracts. U.S. Special Operations Command also established a multiple-award contract in July 2024 with a ceiling of $750,000,000. Even smaller contracts, like a $1,800 award for .250 caliber projectiles in July 2025, show demand across all levels.
European allies are also ramping up:
- Lithuania ordered tens of thousands of 40mm cartridges from Rheinmetall for approximately 16 million euros in December 2024.
- Estonia awarded the same company a 17 million euro hand grenade contract in Q2 2025.
- Sweden has also committed 2.8 billion Swedish kronor (267 million) for a shell supply plan with Nammo and Norma for 2024 and 2025.
Key Findings in Small Caliber Ammunition Market
| Market Forecast (2033) | US$ 10.75 billion |
| CAGR | 3.2% |
| Largest Region (2024) | North America (34%) |
| By Product Type | Ceasefire (65%) |
| By Caliber | 5.56mm (46%) |
| Top Drivers |
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| Top Trends |
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| Top Challenges |
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A Thriving Civilian Sector Continues to Fuel Significant Market Expansion
While military contracts dominate headlines, the civilian segment remains a formidable pillar of the small caliber ammunition market, predicted to experience the fastest compound annual growth rate during the forecast period. This sector, which already constitutes 35% of the market share, is driven by a strong culture of sport shooting and personal defense. In the United States, over 52.7 million people participated in sport and target shooting activities in 2024.
Youth engagement is also on the rise, with the USA Clay Target League growing its participation to 53,250 student-athletes in 2024, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, with 37,158 of those participating in the spring 2024 programs. While U.S. retail sales saw a slight dip of 5% year-to-date in October 2023, ammunition imports surged by 9% in the same period, indicating resilient demand. This trend is mirrored in Europe, where an increase of nearly 4 million new firearm registrations was recorded in 2024, signaling a robust and growing consumer base for ammunition.
Technological Innovation in Materials Creates New and Lucrative Market Avenues
Innovation is a powerful catalyst within the global small caliber ammunition market , with advancements in materials science opening new frontiers. The polymer-cased ammunition market, for instance, was estimated at a significant $500 million in 2025 and is projected to more than double to over $1 billion by 2033, growing at a remarkable CAGR of 8%. A separate analysis projects this sub-market will expand at a CAGR of 4.00% between 2024 and 2031.
Growth is particularly strong in Asia, where the polymer cased ammunition market is projected to see a 6.0% CAGR, with the Indian market forecasted to grow at an even faster 7.8%. Concurrently, the less-lethal ammunition market was valued at $1.11 billion in 2024, with the paintballs segment expected to grow at the fastest CAGR of 4.9% from 2024 to 2030. Environmental concerns are also driving change; in 2024, 4.5% of total ammunition produced globally was lead-free, with expectations for this figure to cross 7% by 2026, creating new opportunities in the market.
Deep Dive into Regional Dynamics Reveals Key Global Market Trends
A granular regional analysis of the small caliber ammunition market reveals distinct patterns of consumption and growth. North America currently dominates, holding the largest revenue share at 33.3% in 2024 with a market value of $5.63 billion. The U.S. market alone is predicted to be worth around $11.53 billion by 2034, rising at a steady CAGR of 4.01%. Europe's market is also on a strong upward trajectory, expected to grow from $2.89 billion in 2023 to $4.73 billion by 2033, reflecting a robust 5.03% CAGR. This is supported by data showing European states nearly doubled their imports of major arms (+94%) between the 2014–18 and 2019–23 periods.
However, the most rapid growth is anticipated in the Asia-Pacific region, with a projected CAGR of 4.83% from 2025 to 2033. The region’s medium and large caliber market is estimated to reach $1.40 billion in 2025 and $1.77 billion by 2030, while Asia and Oceania accounted for a massive 37% of global arms imports between 2019 and 2023, signaling a vast and expanding theater of demand.
Analysis of Ammunition Types Highlights Dominance of Key Calibers
Specific calibers form the backbone of the small caliber ammunition market, with their popularity dictated by military standards and civilian preferences. The 5.56mm segment is a clear leader, accounting for the largest revenue share of the U.S. market in 2023 at an overwhelming 77.8% and making up about 35% of the total market. The 7.62mm segment is also poised for significant expansion, expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% over the forecast period. In the civilian handgun space, 9mm ammunition is king, accounting for approximately 57% of all handgun ammo sales globally.
Looking at the broader ammunition landscape, the small caliber segment accounted for a significant 28.12% of global revenue in 2023. The defense sector overwhelmingly leads consumption, accounting for 88.2% of the ammunition market share in 2024. Within this, the lethal ammunition segment holds a 72.1% share, while the non-guided ammunition segment makes up 68% of the market.
Navigating Supply Chain Volatility and Raw Material Cost Fluctuations
The intricate supply chain underpinning the small caliber ammunition market is highly sensitive to fluctuations in raw material costs. In 2024, these pressures became evident when Merit Brass Company announced an 8% list price increase on its import brass fittings and a 12% increase for brass pipe nipples, effective May 6th, 2024. Similarly, Alliant Powder announced a 10 percent price increase in early 2024 due to limited availability, with some firearm dealers reporting a 15%-18% increase in powder prices by February 2025. Adding to supply chain complexity, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports was imposed in March 2025.
Interestingly, despite these cost pressures, consumer prices for some popular calibers remained relatively stable. The price of 9mm ammunition in May 2025 was around $0.20 per round, 35% cheaper than the five-year average, while 5.56/.223 ammunition was about $0.39 per round, approximately 25% below historical prices. Transparency in this area may soon decrease, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discontinue tracking the Producer Price Index for Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing after July 2025. This makes navigating the small caliber ammunition market more challenging.
Massive Government Defense Budgets Underpin a Long-Term Growth Trajectory
Sustained and increasing government defense spending provides a stable and powerful engine for the global ammunition market's growth. European nations allocated a staggering $480 billion to defense in 2024, while the European Defence Fund allocated 1.2 billion euros in 2023 to facilitate the adoption of modern equipment. In North America small caliber ammunition market , total military spending in Canada is projected to increase from $36.3 billion in 2022-2023 to an impressive $51.0 billion in 2026-2027. The United States continues to be the dominant force in global arms transfers. The U.S. Department of State authorized $200.8 billion in Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) for fiscal year 2024, a 27.5% increase from the previous year. Furthermore, the total value of Foreign Military Sales (FMS) in FY2024 reached $117.9 billion, a massive 45.7% increase from FY2023. This deluge of government capital ensures a consistent and high-volume demand stream for manufacturers.
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Ammunition Manufacturers Aggressively Expanding Production Capacity to Meet Demand
In direct response to the unprecedented surge in demand, small caliber ammunition market manufacturers are making significant capital investments to expand their production capabilities. The EU has set an ambitious goal to produce 2.5 million 155mm rounds by the end of 2025. Key players are ramping up to meet this challenge; Rheinmetall plans to produce 700,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells annually starting in 2025. The Czech company STV Group intends to produce 300,000 155mm rounds and 150,000 rounds of other calibers in 2025.
The U.S. is also making massive strides, aiming to double its monthly output of 155mm rounds to 100,000 by leveraging advanced automation, with a goal to produce 1.2 million rounds in total during 2025. The less-lethal sector is expanding as well, with Byrna Technologies' new U.S. facility boasting the capacity to produce 8 million rounds of its specialized ammunition per year as of March 2025. This expansion is a clear indicator of the robust health of the small caliber ammunition market.
Global Small Caliber Ammunition Market Major Players:
- Aguila Ammunition
- BAE Systems
- Barnaul Ammunition
- CBC Global Ammunition
- Denel SOC Ltd
- Elbit Systems Ltd.
- General Dynamics Corporation
- KNDS N.V.
- Nammo AS
- Northrop Grumman Corporation
- Olin Corporation
- PT Pindad
- RAUG Group
- Remington Arms Company LLC
- Sellier & Ballot
- Thales Group
- Vista Outdoor, Inc.
- Other Prominent Players
Key Market Segmentation:
By Product
- Rimfire
- Centerfire
By Caliber
- 5.56mm
- 7.62mm
- 9mm
- Others
By Region
- North America
- Europe
- Asia Pacific
- Middle East
- Africa
- South America
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