Total Number for Retailers Tracked
----------------------------------
MAR-2010 FEB-2010 JAN-2010
Almost certain increase* 5 4 4
Likely increase 7 8 4
Flat 4 0 4
Likely decline 4 9 4
Almost certain decline 7 6 11
*An "almost certain increase" indicator for March means that in April and
May, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth
from the same period a year ago. February indicators were for March and
April and January indicators were for February and March.
Warehouse clubs (BJ's and Costco) and retailers with a discount offering
such as Ross and TJX continue to be more likely to experience growth in
same store sales. Specialty retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale,
Children's Place and Wet Seal are also likely to see an increase. This is
the second month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch is expecting growth
after a long-term trend of negative forecasts. Similarly, Wet Seal is
coming off seventeen months of predictions for decline.
On the other hand, department stores including Bonton, Dillard's and
JCPenney are almost certain to post a decline through May.
Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations
for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through May follows:
Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
------------------------------- ------------------------------
BJ's Bonton
Buckle Dillard's
Costco Gap
Ross Hot Topic
TJX JCPenney
Stage
Steinmart
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
----------------------- ----------------------
Abercrombie & Fitch Cato's
Aeropostale Neiman Marcus
Children's Place Saks
Fred's
Nordstrom
Wet Seal
Flat:
-----
American Eagle
Banana Republic
Old Navy
About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by
analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch monthly Consumer
Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of
consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by
applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate
and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store
sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day
period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus
estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-
centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer
demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and
understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact Information: Contact: Phil Rist 614-846-0146